Tuesday, March 27, 2018

Light Sweet Crude Oil Reports

I've been trading oil on and off for 4 years now. One thing I've learned is that oil moves based on numbers from the following weekly reports:
  • The American Petroleum Institute (API) reports on Tuesday 4:30 PM EST. The API is a U.S. trade association for the oil and natural gas industry. Their reports feature inventories of crude oil and oil-derived products such as gasoline and fuel oil. Reports are only available via purchase or through Thomson Reuters. However, less than 5 minutes after the report, you can typically find the key numbers in the $CL_F channel on StockTwits. A typical post might look like this:
  • Crude: -2.62MM, Exp. +3.25MM
    Gasoline -1.69MM
    Distillate: -2.32MM
    Cushing: +905K
    Production: 10.407MMbpd, +26kbpd
    
  • The Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly petroleum status report on Wednesday at 10:30 AM EST. The EIA is a part of the US Department of Energy. Anyone can access the report at the EIA site.
  • The Baker Hughes rig count report on Friday at 1:00 PM EST. Baker Hughes is a GE company. Anyone can access the rig count report on the Baker Hughes site.
I'll drill into these reports in future posts.

Energy futures contracts are traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange through the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group.
  • Open: Sunday at 6:00 PM EST.
  • Close: Friday at 5:15 PM EST.
  • Pit trading runs Monday through Friday 9 AM - 2:30 PM EST.
  • Trading stops every weekday from 5:15 to 6 PM EST.
Martin Kronicle offers training for traders. I can't speak for their classes, but I listened to one of their podcasts featuring Brynne Kelly, an energy analyst: What the CL and NG contracts actually mean. She explains how she analyses the oil and gas markets and offers a PDF summary as well.

Thanks for reading! I'll update this blog daily with what I've learned from trading.

2 comments:

  1. It moves based on trend and its momentum and where it is respect of the bigger current trend and the levels of support support and resistance that are important to that trend that are in the current short term trend and are not tested in the short term. Like your Dad I started bk in early 80s and had to use the paper or local library to construct my own charts thru point and figure charts and learned what is really is Support and resistance based on how the current trend fit w the bigger trend . The trend to and from a High of importance and vice versa for a Low.

    I quickly noticed that due to the CURRENT TREND AND ITS MOMENTUM that EITHER before or after Support or Resistance is found the momentum of the current trend will start to slow by way of testing what the current move is above, if down, or below if Up so it can bypass whats tested and go to whats untested Support if move currently is up or Resistance, if its down and especially important to the current bigger move.

    So whats important to the higher time frame trend. Using the higher time frame as one's guide and where to look and the dynamics of trend in regards to Support and resistance, one can use the lower time frames for more precision and to see the shifting of the momentum of the CURRENT trend by what has been mentioned above to generate momentum in the opposite direction by way of bypassing whats been tested since whats close to where the instrument found Support or resistance has been tested especially what is important to the trend to a High or Low of importance to the current bigger move. To a High or low of importance on the higher timeframe.

    So when the instrument hits that level of Resistance/Support that hasnt been tested it then targets the opposite. By doing so it then must either test or eliminate whats in between again either before or after moving from Resistsnce to Support or vice versa before it can continue w the CURRENT TREND. This is what we see occurring on the lower time frames, below a weekly/monthly time frame. Why we see what people call chop. Its merely the testing of Resistance or Support thats untested between an important level as per the higher timeframe, i.e. resistance and since support has been found and vice versa since resistance has been found.

    Why big moves occur and how can determine when that will occur.

    Hope this helps.

    ReplyDelete

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